What broke, and what we got wrong
Every call whose 14-day window closed this week, graded against what actually happened. Misses are listed first, because they are the part a track record usually leaves out.
By board
| Board | Resolved | Avg forecast | What happened | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Weather | 178 | 57% | 51% broke | 0.117 |
| SOL v2 | 46 | tiers | AVOID 0/6 broke · WATCH 1/14 broke · OK 0/10 broke · OUT OF RANGE 0/16 broke | — |
Confident calls that missed
None this week.
Biggest surprises
Ranges that broke when the call gave them 20% or less, and ranges that held when it gave 80% or more. A surprise is not automatically an error: a 15% call should break about one time in seven. Across the 127 calls at those odds this week, about 9 surprises were expected and 11 happened. Whether that gap is real over many weeks is on the calibration page.
| Pool | Board | Frozen | Range | Chance | Tier | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WETH/USDC | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±5% | 98% break | AVOID | HELD |
| ETH (coin) | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±5% | 98% break | AVOID | HELD |
| WBTC/USDC | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±5% | 90% break | AVOID | HELD |
| cbBTC/USDC | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±5% | 90% break | AVOID | HELD |
| BTC (coin) | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±5% | 90% break | AVOID | HELD |
| W/USDC | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±35% | 16% break | OK | BROKE |
| W (coin) | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±35% | 16% break | OK | BROKE |
| POPCAT/USDC | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±15% | 84% break | AVOID | HELD |
| POPCAT (coin) | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±15% | 84% break | AVOID | HELD |
| PYTH/USDC | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±35% | 20% break | OK | BROKE |
| PYTH (coin) | Market Weather | 2026-09-21 | ±35% | 20% break | OK | BROKE |
SOL v2: OK calls whose band broke
The costly miss for a tier board: a band called OK that a normal move took out. An AVOID band that survives a calm fortnight is not counted as a miss by the sealed SOL v2 standard (it reads as UNTESTED, a calm regime); its verdicts say which.
None this week.
Weeks: 2026-W40 · 2026-W41 · all weeks. Built from the public outcome files only; every pool name links to its full record.