SOL Pool Risk — v2 · 14-day forward calls

record as of 2026-10-06 · every call pre-registered before its outcome · bbm-v2.2.0
Today's calls · the next 14 days
Pre-committed calls — outcomes resolve at 14 days.
BBM = room to the nearest band edge ÷ the asset's normal 14-day move (shown as room and move≈). Two different questions on each card: the tier asks whether the room left in this band is smaller than the asset's 1-in-10 fortnight move (AVOID = yes, so a bad-but-normal fortnight takes it out); the Market Weather % is the share of the last two years' fortnights that would have broken this exact band. An AVOID band with a 20% Market Weather chance is consistent: AVOID flags fragility, the % says how often that fragility has actually been hit.
6 AVOID · 5 WATCH · 4 OK · 8 OUT OF RANGE
cohort frozen 2026-10-06 · 23 pools · not yet matured · resolves 2026-10-20 · bbm-v2.2.0

AVOID6

fragile — in range, but one normal move takes it out
ORCA/USDC AVOID
BBM 0.21room 17%move≈80%
Market Weather: 45% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20
bSOL/USDC AVOID
BBM 0.50room 15%move≈30%
Market Weather: 32% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20
WIF/USDC AVOID
BBM 0.52room 29%move≈56%
Market Weather: 21% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20
PENGU/USDC AVOID
BBM 0.67room 51%move≈76%
Market Weather: 15% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20
RAY/USDC AVOID
BBM 0.71room 40%move≈57%
Market Weather: 17% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20
W/USDC AVOID
BBM 0.77room 33%move≈43%
Market Weather: 14% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20

WATCH5

thin margin — a bad fortnight can take it out
RENDER/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.30room 58%move≈45%
Market Weather: 6% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20
BONK/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.41room 84%move≈60%
Market Weather: 4% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20
USDT/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.78room 2%move≈1%
resolves 2026-10-20
USDS/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.78room 2%move≈1%
resolves 2026-10-20
JTO/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.93room 97%move≈50%
Market Weather: 3% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20

OK4

resilient — absorbs the asset's normal 14-day moves
POPCAT/USDC OK
BBM 2.24room 126%move≈56%
Market Weather: 3% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20
TNSR/USDC OK
BBM 3.77room 204%move≈54%
Market Weather: 2% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20
PYTH/USDC OK
BBM 7.57room 308%move≈41%
Market Weather: <1% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20
DRIFT/USDC OK
BBM 24.98room 1584%move≈63%
Market Weather: <1% chance this band breaks in 14d
resolves 2026-10-20

OUT OF RANGE8

idle — price already left this band; earns no fees, bleeds only if price comes back through
KMNO/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 109%move≈56%
resolves 2026-10-20
SOL/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 38%move≈30%
resolves 2026-10-20
JUP/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 48%move≈41%
resolves 2026-10-20
JitoSOL/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 31%move≈29%
resolves 2026-10-20
mSOL/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 32%move≈34%
resolves 2026-10-20
cbBTC/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 15%move≈18%
resolves 2026-10-20
WBTC/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 15%move≈18%
resolves 2026-10-20
WETH/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 23%move≈30%
resolves 2026-10-20
Entering today? · fresh positions at today's price — chance the range breaks within 14 days
Market Weather 2026-10-06 · bands set around today's pool price · AVOID ≥ 60% · WATCH 30–60% · OK < 30% · "fees/IL" < 1× means expected impermanent loss outruns the fees this range earned last week (ungraded: shown for context, never graded) · each chance is how often a range this wide broke across the asset's last 2 years of 14-day windows, so it changes little day to day · Market Weather →
pool±5% range±15% range±35% range
BONK/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.5×
86% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.8×
26% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.5×
DRIFT/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.5×
90% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.2×
33% WATCH
ungraded fees/IL 0.1×
JTO/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.9×
88% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.0×
23% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.8×
JUP/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.7×
83% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.8×
18% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.7×
JitoSOL/USDC98% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.9×
48% WATCH
ungraded fees/IL 0.5×
4% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.4×
KMNO/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.2×
84% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.1×
28% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.1×
ORCA/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.7×
80% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.6×
28% OK
ungraded fees/IL 2.1×
PENGU/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.4×
88% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.7×
31% WATCH
ungraded fees/IL 0.5×
POPCAT/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.9×
84% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.4×
30% WATCH
ungraded fees/IL 0.3×
PYTH/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 2.0×
86% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.0×
21% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.8×
RAY/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.6×
86% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.9×
33% WATCH
ungraded fees/IL 0.6×
RENDER/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.3×
74% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.9×
18% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.7×
SOL/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.9×
59% WATCH
ungraded fees/IL 0.4×
6% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.4×
TNSR/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.3×
83% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.6×
29% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.4×
W/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.0×
77% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.9×
17% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.7×
WBTC/USDC90% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.0×
16% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.6×
<1% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.6×
WETH/USDC98% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.5×
45% WATCH
ungraded fees/IL 0.3×
7% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.2×
WIF/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.8×
85% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.9×
28% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.6×
bSOL/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 1.7×
59% WATCH
ungraded fees/IL 0.9×
6% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.8×
cbBTC/USDC90% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.7×
16% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.5×
<1% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.4×
mSOL/USDC>99% AVOID
ungraded fees/IL 0.9×
59% WATCH
ungraded fees/IL 0.4×
5% OK
ungraded fees/IL 0.4×
Track record · every matured cohort, misses included
Of the pools we flagged AVOID, 3% went bad. Of the pools we called OK, 100% stayed safe. Of the pools we called OUT OF RANGE, 100% stayed idle.
2/66 AVOID breached · 55/55 OK held · 16/16 OUT OF RANGE idle · 9 cohort(s) resolved at 14 days · 38 of the AVOID calls were v2.0 calls on pools already out of range (see note)
cohort frozenmodelAVOID went badOK stayed safe OUT OF RANGE stayed idle
2026-09-22bbm-v2.1.00/34/48/8
2026-09-21bbm-v2.1.00/36/68/8
2026-09-20bbm-v2.0.00/96/60/—
2026-09-19bbm-v2.0.00/107/70/—
2026-09-18bbm-v2.0.00/95/50/—
2026-09-17bbm-v2.0.01/87/70/—
2026-09-16bbm-v2.0.01/86/60/—
2026-09-15bbm-v2.0.00/87/70/—
2026-09-14bbm-v2.0.00/87/70/—
Latest matured cohort · frozen 2026-09-22 · resolved 2026-10-06

AVOID3

fragile — in range, but one normal move takes it out
WIF/USDC AVOID
BBM 0.43room 24%move≈55%
+3.6% vs hold · held
✗ miss
bSOL/USDC AVOID
BBM 0.65room 20%move≈30%
+0.6% vs hold · held
✗ miss
PENGU/USDC AVOID
BBM 0.80room 61%move≈76%
+1.3% vs hold · held
✗ miss

WATCH8

thin margin — a bad fortnight can take it out
RAY/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.33room 73%move≈55%
+0.3% vs hold · held
— buffer
ORCA/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.34room 107%move≈80%
-7.9% vs hold · trapped
— buffer
W/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.45room 63%move≈43%
+0.1% vs hold · held
— buffer
BONK/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.57room 94%move≈60%
+1.4% vs hold · held
— buffer
USDS/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.77room 2%move≈1%
+0.0% vs hold · held
— buffer
USDT/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.79room 2%move≈1%
+0.0% vs hold · held
— buffer
POPCAT/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.89room 110%move≈58%
+0.6% vs hold · held
— buffer
RENDER/USDC WATCH
BBM 1.98room 86%move≈44%
+0.2% vs hold · held
— buffer

OK4

resilient — absorbs the asset's normal 14-day moves
JTO/USDC OK
BBM 2.62room 128%move≈49%
+0.7% vs hold · held
✓ right
TNSR/USDC OK
BBM 4.15room 225%move≈54%
+0.7% vs hold · held
✓ right
PYTH/USDC OK
BBM 9.96room 393%move≈39%
+0.2% vs hold · held
✓ right
DRIFT/USDC OK
BBM 23.17room 1421%move≈61%
+0.3% vs hold · held
✓ right

OUT OF RANGE8

idle — price already left this band; earns no fees, bleeds only if price comes back through
KMNO/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 73%move≈53%
+0.0% vs hold · held
✓ stayed idle
SOL/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 33%move≈30%
+0.0% vs hold · held
✓ stayed idle
JitoSOL/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 26%move≈30%
+0.0% vs hold · held
✓ stayed idle
cbBTC/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 15%move≈18%
+0.0% vs hold · held
✓ stayed idle
WBTC/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 15%move≈18%
+0.0% vs hold · held
✓ stayed idle
WETH/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 24%move≈30%
+0.0% vs hold · held
✓ stayed idle
mSOL/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 27%move≈34%
+0.0% vs hold · held
✓ stayed idle
JUP/USDC OUT OF RANGE
out of band by 24%move≈41%
+0.0% vs hold · held
✓ stayed idle
What this is. A forward call on each pool for the next 14 days, frozen and hash-committed before the outcome exists, then graded against what the position actually did. A pool can show a headline yield and still be a trap; this board says which positions a normal market move will hurt, which will ride it out, and which are earning nothing at all.
How the call is made. BBM = how far price must move to leave the pool's liquidity band ÷ that asset's normal 14-day move (a 2-year external prior, refreshed on the 1st of each month and published before use). BBM below 1 → AVOID; 1–2 → WATCH; 2 or more → OK. If price has already left the band → OUT OF RANGE (v2.1, from bbm-v2.1.0): the position is idle and earns no fees.
What the grade means. Bands were frozen on 2026-07-16 and remain static. Every daily cohort—including v1—grades against this fixed baseline, so v2 preserves the exact same evaluation semantics. Trap = realized net return below −5% vs simply holding, identical to v1.
Note on v2.0 cohorts. Cohorts frozen under bbm-v2.0.0 had no OUT OF RANGE tier, so pools already outside their band were called AVOID. Those calls stand exactly as frozen and are graded as AVOID; they rarely lose (the position is idle), so they show as misses. Disclosed on publiciq.
prior_table ca9341dd2955 · ledger 66e87d3ace333af8