Market Weather · the next 14 days

Name: GradedLP Market Weather: 14-day liquidity pool risk forecasts (34 top coins and Solana pool assets)
Creator: GradedLP
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

frozen 2026-10-06 23:50 UTC · window 2026-10-07 → 2026-10-20 · pre-registered before the window opens · mw-v1.0.0

Check it yourself: today's pre-registration · the sealed grading rule · every published outcome · how to verify

Options markets read CALM — 7 of 7 options-traded coins price less movement than their 2-year normal.
For each coin: how likely a band set around today's price is to break (price leaves it at least once) within 14 days. AVOID ≥ 60% · WATCH 30–60% · OK < 30%.
How to read these numbers: each is how often that happened across the coin's last 2 years of 14-day windows, so it changes little from day to day and does not react to this week's conditions. The options view, where shown, is the part that does.

Top coins · 15 largest by market cap + SUI, LTC, AVAX

coin	14-day range 90% of moves stay inside	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band	options market
BTC options market options-view challenger: ±15% → 4%	+14% / -14% typical +6% / -5%	90%AVOID	16%OK	<1%OK	CALM · 0.60×
ETH options market options-view challenger: ±15% → 11%	+23% / -23% typical +9% / -7%	98%AVOID	45%WATCH	7%OK	CALM · 0.50×
BNB baseline — no forward edge proven thin history	+27% / -16% typical +7% / -4%	91%AVOID	33%WATCH	3%OK
XRP options market options-view challenger: ±15% → 21%	+36% / -24% typical +8% / -9%	>99%AVOID	48%WATCH	15%OK	CALM · 0.54×
SOL options market options-view challenger: ±15% → 12%	+26% / -25% typical +10% / -9%	>99%AVOID	59%WATCH	6%OK	CALM · 0.52×
TRX options market options-view challenger: ±15% → 2%	+15% / -12% typical +5% / -3%	75%AVOID	14%OK	2%OK	CALM · 0.29×
ZEC baseline — no forward edge proven	+70% / -32% typical +20% / -11%	>99%AVOID	89%AVOID	36%WATCH
HYPE options market thin history options-view challenger: ±15% → 24%	+44% / -17% typical +13% / -9%	>99%AVOID	59%WATCH	15%OK	CALM · 0.54×
DOGE baseline — no forward edge proven	+35% / -29% typical +10% / -10%	99%AVOID	67%AVOID	16%OK
XMR baseline — no forward edge proven	+30% / -22% typical +11% / -6%	>99%AVOID	50%WATCH	10%OK
LINK baseline — no forward edge proven	+33% / -26% typical +10% / -10%	>99%AVOID	62%AVOID	10%OK
ADA baseline — no forward edge proven	+37% / -28% typical +10% / -11%	>99%AVOID	65%AVOID	16%OK
XLM baseline — no forward edge proven	+36% / -26% typical +9% / -10%	>99%AVOID	57%WATCH	13%OK
UNI baseline — no forward edge proven	+49% / -29% typical +13% / -11%	>99%AVOID	78%AVOID	22%OK
NEAR baseline — no forward edge proven	+40% / -29% typical +13% / -12%	>99%AVOID	79%AVOID	18%OK
SUI baseline — no forward edge proven	+41% / -30% typical +11% / -12%	99%AVOID	75%AVOID	20%OK
LTC baseline — no forward edge proven	+27% / -25% typical +8% / -8%	96%AVOID	47%WATCH	9%OK
AVAX options market options-view challenger: ±15% → 37%	+31% / -29% typical +9% / -10%	>99%AVOID	63%AVOID	12%OK	CALM · 0.69×

Solana pool assets · the tokens behind the SOL v2 board

coin	14-day range 90% of moves stay inside	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
JUP baseline — no forward edge proven	+39% / -31% typical +15% / -13%	>99%AVOID	83%AVOID	18%OK
WIF baseline — no forward edge proven thin history	+49% / -37% typical +13% / -16%	>99%AVOID	85%AVOID	28%OK
BONK baseline — no forward edge proven	+55% / -33% typical +13% / -16%	>99%AVOID	86%AVOID	26%OK
PYTH baseline — no forward edge proven thin history	+39% / -31% typical +12% / -14%	>99%AVOID	86%AVOID	22%OK
JTO baseline — no forward edge proven	+42% / -32% typical +17% / -14%	>99%AVOID	88%AVOID	23%OK
RENDER baseline — no forward edge proven	+37% / -32% typical +12% / -12%	>99%AVOID	74%AVOID	18%OK
W baseline — no forward edge proven thin history	+37% / -29% typical +11% / -13%	>99%AVOID	77%AVOID	17%OK
ORCA baseline — no forward edge proven	+79% / -31% typical +14% / -12%	>99%AVOID	80%AVOID	28%OK
RAY baseline — no forward edge proven	+53% / -35% typical +18% / -13%	>99%AVOID	86%AVOID	33%WATCH
TNSR baseline — no forward edge proven	+47% / -35% typical +13% / -16%	>99%AVOID	83%AVOID	29%OK
DRIFT baseline — no forward edge proven	+58% / -40% typical +14% / -17%	>99%AVOID	90%AVOID	33%WATCH
PENGU baseline — no forward edge proven thin history	+61% / -34% typical +15% / -15%	>99%AVOID	88%AVOID	31%WATCH
POPCAT baseline — no forward edge proven thin history	+48% / -37% typical +14% / -15%	>99%AVOID	84%AVOID	30%WATCH
KMNO baseline — no forward edge proven	+54% / -35% typical +16% / -12%	>99%AVOID	84%AVOID	28%OK
mSOL baseline — no forward edge proven	+26% / -25% typical +10% / -9%	>99%AVOID	59%WATCH	5%OK
JitoSOL baseline — no forward edge proven thin history	+20% / -24% typical +8% / -8%	98%AVOID	48%WATCH	4%OK

Where these coins are graded as pools · every board is pre-registered and graded the same way

A coin's 14-day range here is the same move that decides whether an LP range breaks on these boards:

ETH — Optimism · Base · Base v4 · BNB Chain · HyperEVM · Monad · Avalanche · Sui · EVM
BTC — Base · Base v4 · BNB Chain · HyperEVM · Monad · Avalanche · EVM
SOL — Orca · Base
SUI — Cetus & Turbos
AVAX — Uniswap v3 & Pharaoh
BNB — PancakeSwap & Uniswap
HYPE — Project X, HyperSwap & Ramses
XRP — XRPL AMM
LINK, UNI — EVM
DEEP, WAL — Sui

Track record · graded against what actually happened

34 coin-forecasts resolved over 1 freeze day(s). Calibration = do breaches happen as often as forecast? A positive gap means they happened MORE often.

band	forecasts	avg forecast	actual breach rate	gap
±5%	34	98%	91%	-7%
±15%	34	67%	56%	-11%
±35%	34	17%	15%	-3%

First formal verdict: 28 freeze days + 14 days to mature (then every 28 days, cumulative).

What this is. A forward forecast of how FAR each coin travels in the next 14 days — not which way. Direction was tested on 15,000 historical forecasts and was a coin flip, so GradedLP does not publish direction calls.
How it is made. Each coin's own last 2 years of 14-day windows: how far price went up and down, kept as pairs so both edges of a band are judged together. "90% range" = 9 in 10 historical windows stayed inside it.
The options view. For coins with a Deribit options market, today's implied volatility vs the coin's 2-year normal (corrected for the usual volatility premium). CALM < 0.80×, STORMY > 1.25×. It runs as a graded CHALLENGER: it becomes the headline only if it beats the baseline on new data over 120+ days, by a rule sealed in advance.
How it is graded. Every forecast is hash-committed before its window opens and judged under a sealed standard on calibration: do 60% forecasts breach about 60% of the time? Misses are published.
Honesty notes. "Baseline" coins have no forecasting edge beyond their own history. "Thin history" = under 2 years of data. Not financial advice.