BSC v2 · BNB Chain pool weather, next 14 days

frozen 2026-10-06 13:10 UTC · window 2026-10-06 → 2026-10-20 · pre-registered before the window opens · bsc-v2.0.0 · all boards

Check it yourself: today's pre-registration · the sealed grading rule · the pool list (incl. exclusions) · how to verify

Entering an LP position today? For a new range set around today's price, how likely is it to break within 14 days (you stop earning fees and hold the losing side)?

BTCB priced in USDT: narrowest OK band is ±15% (15% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
BTCB priced in BNB: narrowest OK band is ±15% (2% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
Cake priced in USDT: narrowest OK band is ±35% (7% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
Cake priced in BNB: narrowest OK band is ±15% (19% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
ETH priced in USDT: narrowest OK band is ±35% (7% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
ETH priced in BNB: narrowest OK band is ±15% (6% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
BNB priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±15% (20% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
BNB priced in USDT: narrowest OK band is ±15% (20% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.

How to read these numbers: each is how often a range this wide was broken (price left it at least once) across the pool's last 2 years of 14-day windows. They change little from day to day and do not react to this week's conditions.

±5%: 0 OK · 4 WATCH · 18 AVOID | ±15%: 18 OK · 4 WATCH · 0 AVOID | ±35%: 22 OK · 0 WATCH · 0 AVOID · AVOID ≥ 60% · WATCH 30–60% · OK < 30%

BTCB priced in USDT · 3 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Pancakeswap 0.01% fee pancakeswap 0x247f5188… · every call & outcome · price 86,114.39 USDT	90%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.1% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.5×	16%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.3×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.3×
Pancakeswap 0.05% fee pancakeswap 0x46cf1cf8… · every call & outcome · price 86,148.84 USDT	89%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.8% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.8×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.5×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.5×
Uniswap 0.05% fee uniswap 0x813c0dec… · every call & outcome · price 86,148.84 USDT	89%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.4% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.6×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.4×

BTCB priced in BNB · 4 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap 0.05% fee uniswap 0x28df0835… · every call & outcome · price 109.75 WBNB · ratio history (hourly closes)	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~1.0% · fees/IL 0.7×	2%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.4% · fees/IL 0.5×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.2% · fees/IL 0.5×
Pancakeswap 0.01% fee pancakeswap 0x62edaf2a… · every call & outcome · price 109.79 WBNB · ratio history (hourly closes)	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~1.0% · fees/IL 0.6×	2%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.4% · fees/IL 0.5×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.2% · fees/IL 0.5×
Pancakeswap 0.05% fee pancakeswap 0x6bbc4057… · every call & outcome · price 109.76 WBNB · ratio history (hourly closes)	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~1.0% · fees/IL 0.6×	2%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.4% · fees/IL 0.5×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.2% · fees/IL 0.5×
Pancakeswap 0.25% fee pancakeswap 0xfc75f4e7… · every call & outcome · price 109.91 WBNB · ratio history (hourly closes)	42%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.7% · IL ~1.0% · fees/IL 0.7×	2%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~0.4% · fees/IL 0.6×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.2% · fees/IL 0.6×

Cake priced in USDT · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Pancakeswap 0.25% fee pancakeswap 0x7f51c8aa… · every call & outcome · price 2.4637 USDT	96%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.0% · IL ~3.8% · fees/IL 0.5×	49%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.9% · IL ~2.5% · fees/IL 0.4×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.3×
Uniswap 0.30% fee uniswap 0xfe4fe5b4… · every call & outcome · price 2.4627 USDT	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.2% · IL ~3.8% · fees/IL 0.6×	49%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.1% · IL ~2.5% · fees/IL 0.4×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.4×

Cake priced in BNB · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Pancakeswap 0.25% fee pancakeswap 0x133b3d95… · every call & outcome · price 0.003134 WBNB · ratio history (hourly closes)	81%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~2.1% · fees/IL 0.3×	19%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~1.1% · fees/IL 0.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.5% · fees/IL 0.4×
Pancakeswap 0.05% fee pancakeswap 0xafb2da14… · every call & outcome · price 0.003138 WBNB · ratio history (hourly closes)	83%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.2% · IL ~2.1% · fees/IL 0.5×	19%OK ungraded fees ~0.7% · IL ~1.1% · fees/IL 0.6×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~0.5% · fees/IL 0.6×

ETH priced in USDT · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Pancakeswap 0.01% fee pancakeswap 0x9f599f3d… · every call & outcome · price 2,711.63 USDT	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 0.4×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.2×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×
Pancakeswap 0.05% fee pancakeswap 0xbe141893… · every call & outcome · price 2,712.71 USDT	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.3% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 1.3×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.8% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.7×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.6×

ETH priced in BNB · 4 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap 0.05% fee uniswap 0x0f338ec1… · every call & outcome · price 3.4561 WBNB · ratio history (hourly closes)	74%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.9% · IL ~1.5% · fees/IL 0.6×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~0.7% · fees/IL 0.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.3% · fees/IL 0.4×
Pancakeswap 0.01% fee pancakeswap 0x62fcb3c1… · every call & outcome · price 3.4575 WBNB · ratio history (hourly closes)	74%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.0% · IL ~1.5% · fees/IL 0.7×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~0.7% · fees/IL 0.5×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.3% · fees/IL 0.5×
Pancakeswap 0.25% fee pancakeswap 0x7d05c845… · every call & outcome · price 3.4585 WBNB · ratio history (hourly closes)	72%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~1.5% · fees/IL 0.5×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~0.7% · fees/IL 0.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.3% · fees/IL 0.4×
Pancakeswap 0.05% fee pancakeswap 0xd0e226f6… · every call & outcome · price 3.4564 WBNB · ratio history (hourly closes)	74%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.7% · IL ~1.5% · fees/IL 0.4×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.7% · fees/IL 0.3×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.3% · fees/IL 0.3×

BNB priced in USDC · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Pancakeswap 0.01% fee pancakeswap 0xf2688fb5… · every call & outcome · price 784.20 USDC	91%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.9% · IL ~2.3% · fees/IL 1.2×	20%OK ungraded fees ~1.0% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.7×	1%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.7×

BNB priced in USDT · 4 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Pancakeswap 0.01% fee pancakeswap 0x172fcd41… · every call & outcome · price 784.28 USDT	91%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.4% · IL ~2.3% · fees/IL 1.0×	20%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.6×	1%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.6×
Pancakeswap 0.05% fee pancakeswap 0x36696169… · every call & outcome · price 784.59 USDT	91%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.3% · IL ~2.3% · fees/IL 0.6×	20%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.3×	1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.3×
Uniswap 0.01% fee uniswap 0x47a90a2d… · every call & outcome · price 784.28 USDT	91%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.3% · IL ~2.3% · fees/IL 1.0×	20%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.6×	1%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.5×
Uniswap 0.05% fee uniswap 0x6fe9e9de… · every call & outcome · price 784.59 USDT	91%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~2.3% · fees/IL 0.6×	20%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.4×	1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.3×

Track record · graded against each pool's own on-chain price

No forecast has matured yet — the first outcomes land 14 days after the first freeze. The first formal verdict comes after 28 freeze days + 14 days to mature, and will very likely read UNTESTED (too little data to judge either way). That is said here in advance, not hidden later.

What this is. For each pool and three range widths (±5%, ±15%, ±35% of today's price, widened to the pool's tick grid), the chance that price leaves the range at least once in the next 14 days. Not a direction call.
How it is made. The last 2 years of 14-day windows for the pool's asset (Coinbase candles). For pools priced in BNB the ratio of the two coins' prices is used, built from hourly closes, which slightly understates the most extreme intraday moves. A pool whose token has no matching price history builds its own from this board's samples and gets no number until it has 60 usable 14-day windows.
Fees and IL (shown, not graded). "fees" = what a $1 position in that range would have earned in the last 7 days × 2, measured on-chain. "IL" = average impermanent loss over the same 2 years of windows. The × number is fees ÷ IL: below 1× the IL has historically outweighed the fees.
One model, many boards. Every pool-weather board runs the same model, and ETH, BTC and each chain's native coin appear on most of them, so results on different boards are not independent tests — read them together, not added up.
How it is graded. Every forecast is hash-committed on the public record before its window opens and judged under a sealed standard on calibration: do 60% forecasts get left about 60% of the time? The pool's price is read on-chain every 5 minutes. Misses are published.
Not financial advice.