SUI v2 · Sui pool weather, next 14 days

frozen 2026-10-06 12:00 UTC · window 2026-10-06 → 2026-10-20 · pre-registered before the window opens · sui-v2.0.0 · all boards

Check it yourself: today's pre-registration · the sealed grading rule · the pool list (incl. exclusions) · how to verify

Entering an LP position today? For a new range set around today's price, how likely is it to break within 14 days (you stop earning fees and hold the losing side)?

DEEP priced in SUI: narrowest OK band is ±35% (<1% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
DEEP priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±35% (21% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
ETH priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±35% (7% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
SUI priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±35% (19% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
SUI priced in USDT: narrowest OK band is ±35% (20% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
WAL priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±35% (22% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.

How to read these numbers: each is how often a range this wide was broken (price left it at least once) across the pool's last 2 years of 14-day windows. They change little from day to day and do not react to this week's conditions.

±5%: 0 OK · 0 WATCH · 11 AVOID | ±15%: 0 OK · 3 WATCH · 8 AVOID | ±35%: 11 OK · 0 WATCH · 0 AVOID · AVOID ≥ 60% · WATCH 30–60% · OK < 30%

DEEP priced in SUI · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Turbos 0.30% fee turbos 0xbca476e3… · every call & outcome · price 0.0197 SUI · ratio history (hourly closes)	96%AVOID ungraded fees ~4.2% · IL ~4.2% · fees/IL 1.0×	36%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.7% · IL ~2.9% · fees/IL 0.6×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.7% · IL ~1.5% · fees/IL 0.5×

DEEP priced in USDC · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Turbos 0.15% fee turbos 0x198af6ff… · every call & outcome · price 0.0237 USDC	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~8.4% · IL ~6.6% · fees/IL 1.3×	78%AVOID ungraded fees ~4.0% · IL ~5.0% · fees/IL 0.8×	21%OK ungraded fees ~1.7% · IL ~3.2% · fees/IL 0.5×

ETH priced in USDC · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Turbos 0.15% fee turbos 0x30fa1443… · every call & outcome · price 2,714.24 USDC	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.8% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 0.4×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.2×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×
Turbos 0.20% fee turbos 0xd306acd1… · every call & outcome · price 2,713.09 USDC	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 0.4×	44%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.2×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×

SUI priced in USDC · 5 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Turbos 0.05% fee turbos 0x0df4f02d… · every call & outcome · price 1.2050 USDC	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~10.6% · IL ~6.4% · fees/IL 1.7×	74%AVOID ungraded fees ~4.0% · IL ~4.7% · fees/IL 0.9×	20%OK ungraded fees ~1.8% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.7×
Cetus 0.05% fee cetus 0x51e883ba… · every call & outcome · price 1.2051 USDC	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~14.5% · IL ~6.4% · fees/IL 2.3×	74%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.5% · IL ~4.7% · fees/IL 1.2×	20%OK ungraded fees ~2.4% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.9×
Turbos 0.30% fee turbos 0x5eb2dfcd… · every call & outcome · price 1.2017 USDC	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~9.6% · IL ~6.3% · fees/IL 1.5×	74%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.7% · IL ~4.7% · fees/IL 0.8×	19%OK ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.6×
Turbos 0.30% fee turbos 0x77f786e7… · every call & outcome · price 1.2018 USDC	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~9.1% · IL ~6.3% · fees/IL 1.4×	74%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.5% · IL ~4.7% · fees/IL 0.8×	19%OK ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.6×
Cetus 0.25% fee cetus 0xb8d7d9e6… · every call & outcome · price 1.2031 USDC	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~15.0% · IL ~6.3% · fees/IL 2.4×	74%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.9% · IL ~4.7% · fees/IL 1.3×	20%OK ungraded fees ~2.6% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 1.0×

SUI priced in USDT · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Turbos 0.30% fee turbos 0x86ed41e9… · every call & outcome · price 1.2021 USDT	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~9.3% · IL ~6.3% · fees/IL 1.5×	74%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.6% · IL ~4.7% · fees/IL 0.8×	20%OK ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.6×

WAL priced in USDC · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Turbos 0.20% fee turbos 0x9490a133… · every call & outcome · price 0.0372 USDC	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.6% · IL ~5.6% · fees/IL 0.5×	74%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.4% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 0.8×	22%OK ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~2.5% · fees/IL 0.6×

Track record · graded against each pool's own on-chain price

No forecast has matured yet — the first outcomes land 14 days after the first freeze. The first formal verdict comes after 28 freeze days + 14 days to mature, and will very likely read UNTESTED (too little data to judge either way). That is said here in advance, not hidden later.

What this is. For each pool and three range widths (±5%, ±15%, ±35% of today's price, widened to the pool's tick grid), the chance that price leaves the range at least once in the next 14 days. Not a direction call.
How it is made. The last 2 years of 14-day windows for the pool's asset (Coinbase candles). For pools priced in SUI the ratio of the two coins' prices is used, built from hourly closes, which slightly understates the most extreme intraday moves.
Fees and IL (shown, not graded). "fees" = what a $1 position in that range would have earned in the last 7 days × 2, measured on-chain. "IL" = average impermanent loss over the same 2 years of windows. The × number is fees ÷ IL: below 1× the IL has historically outweighed the fees.
One model, many boards. Every pool-weather board runs the same model, and ETH, BTC and each chain's native coin appear on most of them, so results on different boards are not independent tests — read them together, not added up.
How it is graded. Every forecast is hash-committed on the public record before its window opens and judged under a sealed standard on calibration: do 60% forecasts get left about 60% of the time? The pool's price is read on-chain every 10 minutes. Misses are published.
Not financial advice.