XRPL v2 · will LPing beat holding, next 14 days

frozen 2026-10-06 16:01 UTC · window 2026-10-06 → 2026-10-20 · pre-registered before the window opens · xrpl-v2.0.0 · all boards
Check it yourself: today's pre-registration · the sealed grading rule · the pool list (incl. exclusions) · how to verify
Thinking of providing liquidity on the XRP Ledger today? For each AMM pool: the chance that, 14 days from now, your LP position is worth less than if you had just held the same XRP and tokens.
How to read these numbers: each combines the pool's current fee pace with every 14-day price move in its last 2 years (shorter for pools marked "short history"). They change little from day to day and do not react to this week's conditions beyond the fee pace.
AVOID ≥ 60% · WATCH 30–60% · OK < 30% chance of losing to holding
All pools · 21 XRP-paired AMM pools, ordered by modeled chance of losing to holding (lowest first)
poolloses to holdingloses > 1%expected result
vs holding, 14 days		fees
current pace		price-move loss
average
VGB / XRP
rUw4bsCaZy… · every call & outcome · fee 1.00% · TVL 1,291 XRP
3%OK2%+8.44%
90%: +3.0% … +10.1%
+10.09%-1.50%
CSC / XRP
rf7g4JWCxu… · every call & outcome · fee 0.99% · TVL 35,887 XRP
9%OK4%+1.34%
90%: -0.8% … +2.1%
+2.06%-0.70%
USD.gh / XRP
rs9ineLqrC… · every call & outcome · fee 0.46% · TVL 16,461 XRP
11%OK5%+0.35%
90%: -1.1% … +0.7%
+0.70%-0.34%
FLR / XRP
r9ZKrNu1RJ… · every call & outcome · fee 1.00% · TVL 96,149 XRP
22%OK2%+0.06%
90%: -0.6% … +0.3%
+0.26%-0.20%
RPR / XRP
rpnAMBAyBM… · every call & outcome · fee 0.93% · TVL 9,547 XRP
26%OK10%-0.58%
90%: -2.9% … +0.5%
+0.47%-1.05%
USD.bs / XRP
rHUpaqUPbw… · every call & outcome · fee 0.22% · TVL 6,479 XRP
28%OK7%-0.24%
90%: -1.6% … +0.2%
+0.19%-0.42%
XRdoge / XRP
rB3nE2Rcnh… · every call & outcome · fee 0.43% · TVL 18,504 XRP
34%WATCH15%-0.44%
90%: -3.1% … +0.5%
+0.48%-0.91%
SOLO / XRP
rMEJo9H5Xv… · every call & outcome · fee 0.77% · TVL 33,123 XRP
34%WATCH10%-0.39%
90%: -3.0% … +0.2%
+0.22%-0.61%
SGB / XRP
rEaErQ5vEb… · every call & outcome · fee 0.30% · TVL 23,643 XRP
36%WATCH12%-0.26%
90%: -1.8% … +0.2%
+0.21%-0.47%
CORE / XRP
rBu4LXTxM9… · every call & outcome · fee 1.00% · TVL 21,443 XRP
37%WATCH11%-0.20%
90%: -2.1% … +0.3%
+0.35%-0.54%
ETH / XRP
rEDFZUyyik… · every call & outcome · fee 1.00% · TVL 12,381 XRP
38%WATCH5%-0.19%
90%: -1.0% … +0.1%
+0.07%-0.26%
EUR.gh / XRP
rw3tWE23X3… · every call & outcome · fee 0.85% · TVL 2,184 XRP
41%WATCH7%-0.31%
90%: -1.6% … +0.1%
+0.10%-0.41%
OAR / XRP
rsR249BtU6… · every call & outcome · fee 1.00% · TVL 19,559 XRP
42%WATCH28%-3.51%
90%: -18.8% … +0.4%
+0.36%-3.86%
XJOY / XRP
rBN8Q6uFCt… · every call & outcome · fee 0.99% · TVL 11,557 XRP
43%WATCH3%-0.17%
90%: -0.7% … +0.1%
+0.09%-0.26%
CNY / XRP
rEKkGGiLMf… · every call & outcome · fee 0.36% · TVL 165,862 XRP
43%WATCH8%-0.33%
90%: -1.6% … +0.1%
+0.09%-0.42%
STX / XRP
rG5ZYmUUT1… · every call & outcome · fee 0.05% · TVL 1,144 XRP
46%WATCH27%-1.03%
90%: -6.0% … +0.6%
+0.60%-1.61%
BTC.core / XRP
rJvuDNFkb2… · every call & outcome · fee 0.96% · TVL 18,766 XRP
48%WATCH5%-0.21%
90%: -0.7% … +0.0%
+0.03%-0.24%
Schmeckles / XRP
rsKuiczZKG… · every call & outcome · fee 1.00% · TVL 32,510 XRP
51%WATCH5%-0.17%
90%: -0.9% … +0.0%
+0.04%-0.21%
Xoge / XRP
rLikwdZqS1… · every call & outcome · fee 0.88% · TVL 13,351 XRP
61%AVOID16%-0.83%
90%: -3.8% … +0.2%
+0.16%-0.99%
BTC.bs / XRP
rQBeAghWHE… · every call & outcome · fee 0.02% · TVL 2,751 XRP
62%AVOID5%-0.23%
90%: -0.8% … +0.0%
+0.01%-0.24%
1MC / XRP
rD6BwRhKRt… · every call & outcome · fee 0.25% · TVL 417 XRP
73%AVOID6%-0.18%
90%: -1.1% … +0.0%
+0.00%-0.18%
Track record · graded from on-chain reserves
No forecast has matured yet — the first outcomes land 14 days after the first freeze. The first formal verdict comes after 28 freeze days + 14 days to mature, and will very likely read UNTESTED (too little data yet). That is said here in advance.
What this is. XRPL AMM pools spread liquidity over every price, so there is no range to fall out of. What decides an LP's result is whether the trading fees earned beat the loss from the price moving (impermanent loss). This board states the odds, per pool, for the next 14 days.
How it is made. Fees at the pool's current pace (its last 7 days, measured on-chain), combined with each of the pool's last 2 years of 14-day price moves (read from the XRP Ledger's own history, one point per day). "short history" = under a year of the pool's own data: the typical move shapes of the long-lived pools are used, scaled to this pool's recent volatility.
How it is graded. Every forecast is hash-committed on the public record before its window opens and judged under a sealed standard on calibration: do pools rated 60% lose to holding about 60% of the time? The outcome is computed exactly from the pool's reserves. Misses are published.
Replaces. XRPL-MC and Pool IQ. Their published verdicts stay on the record. Not financial advice.