HyperEVM v2 · HyperEVM pool weather, next 14 days

frozen 2026-10-06 14:10 UTC · window 2026-10-06 → 2026-10-20 · pre-registered before the window opens · hyperevm-v2.0.0 · all boards

Check it yourself: today's pre-registration · the sealed grading rule · the pool list (incl. exclusions) · how to verify

Entering an LP position today? For a new range set around today's price, how likely is it to break within 14 days (you stop earning fees and hold the losing side)?

UBTC priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±15% (15% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
UBTC priced in USD₮0: narrowest OK band is ±15% (15% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
UBTC priced in HYPE: narrowest OK band is ±35% (6% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
UETH priced in HYPE: narrowest OK band is ±35% (6% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
HYPE priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±35% (15% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
HYPE priced in USD₮0: narrowest OK band is ±35% (16% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.

How to read these numbers: each is how often a range this wide was broken (price left it at least once) across the pool's last 2 years of 14-day windows. They change little from day to day and do not react to this week's conditions.

±5%: 0 OK · 0 WATCH · 13 AVOID | ±15%: 3 OK · 10 WATCH · 0 AVOID | ±35%: 13 OK · 0 WATCH · 0 AVOID · AVOID ≥ 60% · WATCH 30–60% · OK < 30%

UBTC priced in USDC · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Prjx 0.30% fee prjx 0xa4abf3ed… · every call & outcome · price 86,209.20 USDC	89%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.7% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.8×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.5×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.5×
Ramses 0.13% fee ramses 0xe7aea6b7… · every call & outcome · price 86,209.20 USDC	89%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.0×	16%OK ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.0×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.0×

UBTC priced in USD₮0 · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Prjx 0.05% fee prjx 0xfd0cb41a… · every call & outcome · price 86,200.58 USD₮0	89%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.7×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.4×

UBTC priced in HYPE · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Prjx 0.30% fee prjx 0x0d6ecb91… · every call & outcome · price 928.21 WHYPE · ratio history (hourly closes)	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~4.1% · IL ~4.5% · fees/IL 0.9×	37%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~3.0% · fees/IL 0.5×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.7% · IL ~1.7% · fees/IL 0.4×
Hyperswap 0.30% fee hyperswap 0x3a36b04b… · every call & outcome · price 928.21 WHYPE · ratio history (hourly closes)	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.9% · IL ~4.5% · fees/IL 0.9×	37%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.4% · IL ~3.0% · fees/IL 0.5×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~1.7% · fees/IL 0.4×

UETH priced in HYPE · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Prjx 0.30% fee prjx 0xaf80230e… · every call & outcome · price 29.1610 WHYPE · ratio history (hourly closes)	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.2% · IL ~4.3% · fees/IL 0.7×	32%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.4% · IL ~3.0% · fees/IL 0.5×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~1.8% · fees/IL 0.4×
Ramses 0.11% fee ramses 0xe5b51f05… · every call & outcome · price 29.2340 WHYPE · ratio history (hourly closes)	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~4.4% · fees/IL 0.0×	32%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~3.0% · fees/IL 0.0×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~1.8% · fees/IL 0.0×

HYPE priced in USDC · 4 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Prjx 0.30% fee prjx 0x422e586c… · every call & outcome · price 92.8306 USDC	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~4.0% · IL ~5.1% · fees/IL 0.8×	57%WATCH ungraded fees ~2.0% · IL ~3.5% · fees/IL 0.6×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.9% · IL ~2.0% · fees/IL 0.4×
Ramses 0.12% fee ramses 0x5a177cf0… · every call & outcome · price 92.7100 USDC	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~5.1% · fees/IL 0.0×	58%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~3.5% · fees/IL 0.0×	16%OK ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~2.1% · fees/IL 0.0×
Prjx 0.05% fee prjx 0x6c9a33e3… · every call & outcome · price 92.7656 USDC	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.8% · IL ~5.1% · fees/IL 0.7×	58%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.8% · IL ~3.5% · fees/IL 0.5×	16%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~2.1% · fees/IL 0.4×
Hyperswap 0.30% fee hyperswap 0xe712d505… · every call & outcome · price 92.8306 USDC	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~4.1% · IL ~5.1% · fees/IL 0.8×	57%WATCH ungraded fees ~2.0% · IL ~3.5% · fees/IL 0.6×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.9% · IL ~2.0% · fees/IL 0.4×

HYPE priced in USD₮0 · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Hyperswap 0.05% fee hyperswap 0x337b56d8… · every call & outcome · price 92.7749 USD₮0	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.6% · IL ~5.1% · fees/IL 0.7×	58%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.8% · IL ~3.5% · fees/IL 0.5×	16%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~2.1% · fees/IL 0.4×
Prjx 0.05% fee prjx 0xbd19e19e… · every call & outcome · price 92.7749 USD₮0	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.7% · IL ~5.1% · fees/IL 0.7×	58%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.8% · IL ~3.5% · fees/IL 0.5×	16%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~2.1% · fees/IL 0.4×

Track record · graded against each pool's own on-chain price

No forecast has matured yet — the first outcomes land 14 days after the first freeze. The first formal verdict comes after 28 freeze days + 14 days to mature, and will very likely read UNTESTED (too little data to judge either way). That is said here in advance, not hidden later.

What this is. For each pool and three range widths (±5%, ±15%, ±35% of today's price, widened to the pool's tick grid), the chance that price leaves the range at least once in the next 14 days. Not a direction call.
How it is made. The last 2 years of 14-day windows for the pool's asset (Coinbase candles). For pools priced in HYPE the ratio of the two coins' prices is used, built from hourly closes, which slightly understates the most extreme intraday moves. A pool whose token has no matching price history builds its own from this board's samples and gets no number until it has 60 usable 14-day windows.
Fees and IL (shown, not graded). "fees" = what a $1 position in that range would have earned in the last 7 days × 2, measured on-chain. "IL" = average impermanent loss over the same 2 years of windows. The × number is fees ÷ IL: below 1× the IL has historically outweighed the fees.
One model, many boards. Every pool-weather board runs the same model, and ETH, BTC and each chain's native coin appear on most of them, so results on different boards are not independent tests — read them together, not added up.
How it is graded. Every forecast is hash-committed on the public record before its window opens and judged under a sealed standard on calibration: do 60% forecasts get left about 60% of the time? The pool's price is read on-chain every 5 minutes. Misses are published.
Not financial advice.