OP v2 · Optimism pool weather, next 14 days

frozen 2026-10-06 15:25 UTC · window 2026-10-06 → 2026-10-20 · pre-registered before the window opens · op-v2.0.0 · all boards

Check it yourself: today's pre-registration · the sealed grading rule · the pool list (incl. exclusions) · how to verify

Entering an LP position today? For a new range set around today's price, how likely is it to break within 14 days (you stop earning fees and hold the losing side)?

ETH vs dollars: narrowest OK band is ±35% (4% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
OP vs dollars: narrowest OK band is ±35% (17% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
OP vs ETH: narrowest OK band is ±35% (2% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
SNX vs dollars: narrowest OK band is ±35% (17% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
SNX vs ETH: narrowest OK band is ±35% (8% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
ZRO vs dollars: narrowest OK band is ±35% (21% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.

How to read these numbers: each is how often a range this wide was broken (price left it at least once) across the pool's last 2 years of 14-day windows. They change little from day to day and do not react to this week's conditions.

±5%: 0 OK · 0 WATCH · 21 AVOID | ±15%: 0 OK · 14 WATCH · 7 AVOID | ±35%: 21 OK · 0 WATCH · 0 AVOID · AVOID ≥ 60% · WATCH 30–60% · OK < 30%

ETH vs dollars · 9 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap 0.05% fee 0x1fb3cf6e… · every call & outcome · price 2,718.15 USD	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.6% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 0.6×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.9% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.3×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.3×
Velodrome 3.00% fee 0x32417381… · every call & outcome · price 2,639.40 USD	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.3% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.8×	44%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.2% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.5×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.4×
Velodrome 0.04% fee 0x478946bc… · every call & outcome · price 2,717.88 USD	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.6% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.6×	44%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.9% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.4×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.3×
Velodrome 0.05% fee 0xc092e9cb… · every call & outcome · price 2,718.15 USD	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.0% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.5×	44%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.7% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.3×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×
Uniswap 0.30% fee 0xc1738d90… · every call & outcome · price 2,716.52 USD	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.4×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.2×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×
Uniswap 0.05% fee 0xc858a329… · every call & outcome · price 2,718.42 USD	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.9% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 0.5×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.7% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.2×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×
Uniswap 1.00% fee 0xd4cb5566… · every call & outcome · price 2,730.96 USD	95%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.6% · IL ~3.9% · fees/IL 0.7×	37%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.0% · IL ~2.5% · fees/IL 0.4×	4%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.3×
Uniswap 0.30% fee 0xdd0c6bae… · every call & outcome · price 2,715.43 USD	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.9% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.5×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.7% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.3×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×
Velodrome 0.05% fee 0xe17105d7… · every call & outcome · price 2,718.42 USD	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.0×	44%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.0×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.0% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.0×

OP vs dollars · 5 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Velodrome 0.05% fee 0x069c637c… · every call & outcome · price 0.1333 USD	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.9% · IL ~6.1% · fees/IL 1.0×	76%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.2% · IL ~4.5% · fees/IL 0.5×	17%OK ungraded fees ~1.0% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.4×
Uniswap 0.30% fee 0x1c3140ab… · every call & outcome · price 0.1332 USD	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~9.0% · IL ~6.1% · fees/IL 1.5×	77%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.3% · IL ~4.5% · fees/IL 0.7×	17%OK ungraded fees ~1.4% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.6×
Uniswap 0.30% fee 0xb2ac2e5a… · every call & outcome · price 0.1332 USD	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~9.8% · IL ~6.1% · fees/IL 1.6×	77%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.6% · IL ~4.5% · fees/IL 0.8×	17%OK ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.6×
Uniswap 0.30% fee 0xb533c12f… · every call & outcome · price 0.1333 USD	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~12.5% · IL ~6.1% · fees/IL 2.0×	75%AVOID ungraded fees ~4.5% · IL ~4.4% · fees/IL 1.0×	17%OK ungraded fees ~2.0% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.8×
Velodrome 0.27% fee 0xebd5311b… · every call & outcome · price 0.1334 USD	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~11.8% · IL ~5.7% · fees/IL 2.1×	73%AVOID ungraded fees ~4.9% · IL ~4.4% · fees/IL 1.1×	17%OK ungraded fees ~2.2% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.9×

OP vs ETH · 4 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Velodrome 0.05% fee 0x443055d9… · every call & outcome · price 0.000049 ETH	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.3% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.6×	35%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.3×	2%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.3×
Velodrome 0.04% fee 0x4dc22588… · every call & outcome · price 0.000049 ETH	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.9% · IL ~3.8% · fees/IL 1.6×	33%WATCH ungraded fees ~2.3% · IL ~2.5% · fees/IL 0.9×	2%OK ungraded fees ~1.0% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.8×
Uniswap 0.30% fee 0x68f5c0a2… · every call & outcome · price 0.000049 ETH	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~8.3% · IL ~3.9% · fees/IL 2.1×	35%WATCH ungraded fees ~3.0% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 1.2×	2%OK ungraded fees ~1.3% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 1.0×
Uniswap 0.05% fee 0xfc1f3296… · every call & outcome · price 0.000049 ETH	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.4% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 1.3×	37%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.9% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.7×	2%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.6×

SNX vs dollars · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Velodrome 0.27% fee 0xf25bbc18… · every call & outcome · price 0.2571 USD	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.6% · IL ~6.6% · fees/IL 0.8×	72%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.1% · IL ~4.9% · fees/IL 0.4×	17%OK ungraded fees ~1.0% · IL ~2.9% · fees/IL 0.3×

SNX vs ETH · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap 0.30% fee 0x0392b358… · every call & outcome · price 0.000094 ETH	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~8.1% · IL ~4.7% · fees/IL 1.7×	39%WATCH ungraded fees ~2.9% · IL ~3.2% · fees/IL 0.9×	8%OK ungraded fees ~1.3% · IL ~1.8% · fees/IL 0.7×

ZRO vs dollars · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap 0.30% fee 0xd9dd3457… · every call & outcome · price 2.2752 USD	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.1% · IL ~6.6% · fees/IL 0.2×	85%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.9% · IL ~4.8% · fees/IL 1.2×	21%OK ungraded fees ~6.1% · IL ~2.8% · fees/IL 2.2×

Track record · graded against each pool's own on-chain price

No forecast has matured yet — the first outcomes land 14 days after the first freeze. The first formal verdict comes after 28 freeze days + 14 days to mature, and will very likely read UNTESTED (too little data to judge either way). That is said here in advance, not hidden later.

What this is. For each pool and three range widths (±5%, ±15%, ±35% of today's price, widened to the pool's tick grid), the chance that price leaves the range at least once in the next 14 days. Not a direction call.
How it is made. The last 2 years of 14-day windows for the pool's asset (Coinbase candles). For OP/ETH and SNX/ETH pools the ratio of the two prices is used, built from hourly closes, which slightly understates the most extreme intraday moves.
Fees and IL (shown, not graded). "fees" = what a $1 position in that range would have earned in the last 7 days × 2, measured on-chain. "IL" = average impermanent loss over the same 2 years of windows. The × number is fees ÷ IL: below 1× the IL has historically outweighed the fees.
One model, many boards. Every pool-weather board runs the same model, and ETH, BTC and each chain's native coin appear on most of them, so results on different boards are not independent tests — read them together, not added up.
How it is graded. Every forecast is hash-committed on the public record before its window opens and judged under a sealed standard on calibration: do 60% forecasts get left about 60% of the time? The pool's price is read on-chain every 3 minutes. Misses are published.
Not financial advice.