Base v2 · Base pool weather, next 14 days

frozen 2026-10-06 13:40 UTC · window 2026-10-06 → 2026-10-20 · pre-registered before the window opens · base-v2.0.0 · all boards

Check it yourself: today's pre-registration · the sealed grading rule · the pool list (incl. exclusions) · how to verify

Entering an LP position today? For a new range set around today's price, how likely is it to break within 14 days (you stop earning fees and hold the losing side)?

AERO priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±35% (10% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
AERO priced in ETH: narrowest OK band is ±35% (12% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
SOL priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±35% (6% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
VIRTUAL priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±35% (14% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
VIRTUAL priced in ETH: narrowest OK band is ±15% (21% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
ETH priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±35% (6% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
cbBTC priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±5% (12% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
cbBTC priced in ETH: narrowest OK band is ±15% (14% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.

How to read these numbers: each is how often a range this wide was broken (price left it at least once) across the pool's last 2 years of 14-day windows. They change little from day to day and do not react to this week's conditions.

±5%: 1 OK · 0 WATCH · 29 AVOID | ±15%: 16 OK · 9 WATCH · 5 AVOID | ±35%: 30 OK · 0 WATCH · 0 AVOID · AVOID ≥ 60% · WATCH 30–60% · OK < 30%

AERO priced in USDC · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Aerodrome 0.05% fee aerodrome 0xa4fdd479… · every call & outcome · price 0.8405 USDC	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~8.1% · IL ~7.8% · fees/IL 1.0×	88%AVOID ungraded fees ~4.0% · IL ~6.0% · fees/IL 0.7×	27%OK ungraded fees ~1.8% · IL ~3.4% · fees/IL 0.5×
Aerodrome 1.00% fee aerodrome 0xbe00ff35… · every call & outcome · price 0.8437 USDC	75%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.8% · IL ~5.3% · fees/IL 0.7×	75%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.8% · IL ~5.3% · fees/IL 0.7×	10%OK ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.6×

AERO priced in ETH · 4 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap 1.00% fee uniswap 0x0d5959a5… · every call & outcome · price 0.000311 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~6.4% · IL ~5.7% · fees/IL 1.1×	62%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.0% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.7×	12%OK ungraded fees ~1.3% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.6×
Uniswap 0.30% fee uniswap 0x3d5d1433… · every call & outcome · price 0.000309 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~8.1% · IL ~5.8% · fees/IL 1.4×	62%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.6% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.9×	13%OK ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.7×
Aerodrome 0.21% fee aerodrome 0x4e506648… · every call & outcome · price 0.000309 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~7.2% · IL ~5.7% · fees/IL 1.3×	60%WATCH ungraded fees ~3.3% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.8×	14%OK ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.7×
Aerodrome 0.30% fee aerodrome 0x82321f3b… · every call & outcome · price 0.000309 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~7.7% · IL ~5.7% · fees/IL 1.4×	60%WATCH ungraded fees ~3.6% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.9×	14%OK ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.7×

SOL priced in USDC · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Aerodrome 0.04% fee aerodrome 0x1131db59… · every call & outcome · price 120.72 USDC	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.5% · IL ~4.5% · fees/IL 0.8×	59%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.2% · IL ~3.0% · fees/IL 0.4×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.5% · fees/IL 0.3×

VIRTUAL priced in USDC · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap 0.30% fee uniswap 0x529d2863… · every call & outcome · price 0.8470 USDC	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~7.3% · IL ~4.8% · fees/IL 1.5×	68%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.6% · IL ~3.2% · fees/IL 1.8×	14%OK ungraded fees ~2.5% · IL ~1.6% · fees/IL 1.5×

VIRTUAL priced in ETH · 3 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Aerodrome 0.01% fee aerodrome 0x3f0296bf… · every call & outcome · price 0.000312 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.2% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 1.2×	26%OK ungraded fees ~1.8% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 1.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 1.3×
Uniswap 0.05% fee uniswap 0x9c087eb7… · every call & outcome · price 0.000312 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.8% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 2.2×	27%OK ungraded fees ~3.3% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 2.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~1.4% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 2.4×
Aerodrome 0.06% fee aerodrome 0xc200f21e… · every call & outcome · price 0.000312 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~6.9% · IL ~2.5% · fees/IL 2.8×	21%OK ungraded fees ~3.3% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 2.6×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 2.5×

ETH priced in USDC · 6 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Aerodrome 0.03% fee aerodrome 0x3fe04a59… · every call & outcome · price 2,714.62 USDC	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.2% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.6×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.3×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.3×
Uniswap 0.30% fee uniswap 0x6c561b44… · every call & outcome · price 2,711.36 USDC	97%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.7% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.4×	44%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.2×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×
Pancakeswap 0.01% fee pancakeswap 0x72ab388e… · every call & outcome · price 2,715.43 USDC	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.7% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 0.4×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.2×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×
Aerodrome 0.05% fee aerodrome 0xb2cc224c… · every call & outcome · price 2,714.62 USDC	96%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.4×	44%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~2.6% · fees/IL 0.2×	6%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×
Pancakeswap 0.05% fee pancakeswap 0xb775272e… · every call & outcome · price 2,714.08 USDC	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 0.4×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.2×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×
Uniswap 0.05% fee uniswap 0xd0b53d92… · every call & outcome · price 2,714.08 USDC	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.0% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 0.5×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.7% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.3×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.2×

cbBTC priced in USDC · 6 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Aerodrome 0.02% fee aerodrome 0x160d7e9d… · every call & outcome · price 86,243.69 USDC	88%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.4% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.6×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.4×
Aerodrome 0.03% fee aerodrome 0x3e66e55e… · every call & outcome · price 86,226.45 USDC	12%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~1.0% · fees/IL 0.4×	3%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~0.7% · fees/IL 0.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.4% · fees/IL 0.4×
Aerodrome 0.04% fee aerodrome 0x4e962bb3… · every call & outcome · price 86,217.82 USDC	87%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~2.1% · fees/IL 0.7×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.5×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.4×
Pancakeswap 0.01% fee pancakeswap 0xb94b2233… · every call & outcome · price 86,243.69 USDC	90%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.9% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.4×	16%OK ungraded fees ~0.3% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.3×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.2×
Uniswap 0.30% fee uniswap 0xec558e48… · every call & outcome · price 86,174.73 USDC	89%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.7×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.4×
Uniswap 0.05% fee uniswap 0xfbb6eed8… · every call & outcome · price 86,209.20 USDC	89%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.4% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 0.6×	16%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 0.4×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 0.4×

cbBTC priced in ETH · 7 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Aerodrome 0.06% fee aerodrome 0x42d4a22c… · every call & outcome · price 31.7605 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	73%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~2.0% · fees/IL 0.3×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~1.1% · fees/IL 0.2×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.5% · fees/IL 0.2×
Aerodrome 0.25% fee aerodrome 0x70acdf2a… · every call & outcome · price 31.7542 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	67%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.9% · fees/IL 0.3×	14%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~1.1% · fees/IL 0.2×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.5% · fees/IL 0.2×
Uniswap 0.05% fee uniswap 0x7aea2e8a… · every call & outcome · price 31.7605 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	73%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~2.0% · fees/IL 0.2×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~1.1% · fees/IL 0.1×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.5% · fees/IL 0.1×
Aerodrome 0.01% fee aerodrome 0x7c7420dd… · every call & outcome · price 31.7637 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	73%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~2.0% · fees/IL 0.3×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~1.1% · fees/IL 0.2×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.5% · fees/IL 0.2×
Uniswap 0.30% fee uniswap 0x8c708056… · every call & outcome · price 31.7574 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	68%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~1.9% · fees/IL 0.2×	14%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~1.1% · fees/IL 0.1×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.5% · fees/IL 0.1×
Pancakeswap 0.01% fee pancakeswap 0xc211e1f8… · every call & outcome · price 31.7637 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	73%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~2.0% · fees/IL 0.2×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~1.1% · fees/IL 0.1×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.5% · fees/IL 0.1×
Pancakeswap 0.05% fee pancakeswap 0xd974d59e… · every call & outcome · price 31.7605 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	73%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~2.0% · fees/IL 0.2×	15%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~1.1% · fees/IL 0.1×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.5% · fees/IL 0.1×

Track record · graded against each pool's own on-chain price

No forecast has matured yet — the first outcomes land 14 days after the first freeze. The first formal verdict comes after 28 freeze days + 14 days to mature, and will very likely read UNTESTED (too little data to judge either way). That is said here in advance, not hidden later.

What this is. For each pool and three range widths (±5%, ±15%, ±35% of today's price, widened to the pool's tick grid), the chance that price leaves the range at least once in the next 14 days. Not a direction call.
How it is made. The last 2 years of 14-day windows for the pool's asset (Coinbase candles). For pools priced in ETH the ratio of the two coins' prices is used, built from hourly closes, which slightly understates the most extreme intraday moves. A pool whose token has no matching price history builds its own from this board's samples and gets no number until it has 60 usable 14-day windows.
Fees and IL (shown, not graded). "fees" = what a $1 position in that range would have earned in the last 7 days × 2, measured on-chain. "IL" = average impermanent loss over the same 2 years of windows. The × number is fees ÷ IL: below 1× the IL has historically outweighed the fees.
One model, many boards. Every pool-weather board runs the same model, and ETH, BTC and each chain's native coin appear on most of them, so results on different boards are not independent tests — read them together, not added up.
How it is graded. Every forecast is hash-committed on the public record before its window opens and judged under a sealed standard on calibration: do 60% forecasts get left about 60% of the time? The pool's price is read on-chain every 5 minutes. Misses are published.
Not financial advice.