Poolwatch · today's calls, next 14 days

Name: GradedLP Poolwatch v2: 14-day liquidity pool risk forecasts (Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism and Polygon)
Creator: GradedLP
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

frozen 2026-10-06 09:30 UTC · snapshot pw-collector fix @ 2026-10-06T09:20:21Z · window to 2026-10-20 · pw-v2.0.0 · Poolwatch v1 selection test · all boards

Check it yourself: today's pre-registration · the sealed grading rule · the pool list (incl. exclusions) · how to verify

Opening a range on one of these pools today? For a fresh range set around today's price, how likely is it to break within 14 days?

At ±15%: 13 of 41 pools are OK, 5 are AVOID.
Least likely to break at ±15%: PRIME / USDC 0.01% (<1%), deSPXA / USDC 0.05% (<1%), PAXG / USDC 0.05% (<1%).

How to read these numbers: each is how often a range this wide was broken (price left it at least once) across past 14-day windows: the last 2 years where a matching coin price exists, otherwise the pool's own shorter record. They change little from day to day and do not react to this week's conditions.

AVOID ≥ 60% · WATCH 30–60% · OK < 30%

Ethereum · 15 pool(s)

pool	±5% range	±15% range	±35% range
WETH / USDT 0.3% Ethereum · TVL $112.0M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~18.1% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 4.4×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~6.2% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 2.3×	7%OK ungraded fees ~2.7% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 2.0×
WETH / USDC 0.05% Ethereum · TVL $98.0M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~4.8% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 1.2×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.6×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.7% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.5×
USDC / WETH 0.3% Ethereum · TVL $47.1M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~11.4% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 2.8×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~3.9% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 1.5×	7%OK ungraded fees ~1.7% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 1.2×
WBTC / USDT 0.05% Ethereum · TVL $26.7M · every call & outcome	90%AVOID ungraded fees ~14.6% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 6.5×	16%OK ungraded fees ~4.9% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 4.1×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~2.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 3.8×
WBTC / USDT 0.3% Ethereum · TVL $25.5M · every call & outcome	90%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.5% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 2.5×	16%OK ungraded fees ~1.9% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 1.6×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 1.5×
WBTC / USDC 0.3% Ethereum · TVL $22.6M · every call & outcome	90%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.9% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 2.7×	16%OK ungraded fees ~2.0% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 1.7×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.9% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 1.6×
WETH / USDT 0.05% Ethereum · TVL $10.4M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~16.4% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 4.0×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~5.6% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 2.1×	7%OK ungraded fees ~2.4% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 1.8×
PRIME / USDC 0.01% Ethereum · TVL $9.0M · every call & outcome · borrowed history	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~0.0% · fees/IL 110.3×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~0.0% · fees/IL 110.3×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.1% · IL ~0.0% · fees/IL 110.3×
USDC / WETH 0.01% Ethereum · TVL $6.9M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~25.3% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 6.2×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~8.6% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 3.2×	7%OK ungraded fees ~3.8% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 2.7×
XAUt / USDT 0.05% Ethereum · TVL $5.4M · every call & outcome · borrowed history	53%WATCH ungraded fees ~8.2% · IL ~1.0% · fees/IL 8.2×	3%OK ungraded fees ~2.8% · IL ~0.4% · fees/IL 6.7×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~1.2% · IL ~0.2% · fees/IL 6.6×
WETH / USDT 0.01% Ethereum · TVL $3.9M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~8.4% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 2.0×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~2.8% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 1.1×	7%OK ungraded fees ~1.2% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.9×
UNI / USDT 0.3% Ethereum · TVL $3.4M · every call & outcome	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~39.1% · IL ~6.3% · fees/IL 6.2×	78%AVOID ungraded fees ~13.3% · IL ~4.5% · fees/IL 2.9×	22%OK ungraded fees ~5.8% · IL ~2.5% · fees/IL 2.3×
PAXG / USDC 0.05% Ethereum · TVL $2.2M · every call & outcome · borrowed history	36%WATCH ungraded fees ~5.3% · IL ~0.7% · fees/IL 7.6×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~1.8% · IL ~0.3% · fees/IL 6.7×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~0.1% · fees/IL 6.7×
ADI / USDC 0.05% Ethereum · TVL — · every call & outcome · own history (daily only — odds are a floor)	83%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.4% · IL ~6.5% · fees/IL 0.4×	58%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~4.9% · fees/IL 0.2×	16%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~2.9% · fees/IL 0.1×
ZAMA / USDT 0.05% Ethereum · TVL — · every call & outcome · own history (daily only — odds are a floor)	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~16.6% · IL ~7.8% · fees/IL 2.1×	61%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.6% · IL ~5.9% · fees/IL 0.9×	35%WATCH ungraded fees ~2.5% · IL ~3.8% · fees/IL 0.7×

Base · 9 pool(s)

pool	±5% range	±15% range	±35% range
WETH / USDC 0.3% Base · TVL $162.7M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~32.0% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 7.8×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~10.9% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 4.1×	7%OK ungraded fees ~4.8% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 3.5×
USDC / WETH 0.05% Base · TVL $10.1M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~20.5% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 5.0×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~6.9% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 2.6×	7%OK ungraded fees ~3.0% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 2.2×
cbBTC / USDC 0.05% Base · TVL $8.7M · every call & outcome	90%AVOID ungraded fees ~13.6% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 6.1×	16%OK ungraded fees ~4.6% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 3.8×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~2.0% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 3.6×
cbBTC / USDC 0.3% Base · TVL $1.8M · every call & outcome	90%AVOID ungraded fees ~18.4% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 8.3×	16%OK ungraded fees ~6.2% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 5.2×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~2.7% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 4.8×
deSPXA / USDC 0.05% Base · TVL $1.7M · every call & outcome · borrowed history	15%OK ungraded fees ~4.0% · IL ~0.3% · fees/IL 11.6×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~1.4% · IL ~0.1% · fees/IL 11.2×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.6% · IL ~0.1% · fees/IL 11.2×
VIRTUAL / USDC 0.3% Base · TVL $943k · every call & outcome · own history (daily only — odds are a floor)	96%AVOID ungraded fees ~95.1% · IL ~5.3% · fees/IL 17.9×	62%AVOID ungraded fees ~32.3% · IL ~3.5% · fees/IL 9.1×	14%OK ungraded fees ~14.1% · IL ~1.8% · fees/IL 7.7×
WETH / USDC 0.01% Base · TVL $701k · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~33.8% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 8.3×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~11.5% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 4.3×	7%OK ungraded fees ~5.0% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 3.7×
USDC / VVV 0.3% Base · TVL $432k · every call & outcome · own history (daily only — odds are a floor)	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~80.7% · IL ~4.4% · fees/IL 18.4×	64%AVOID ungraded fees ~27.4% · IL ~2.9% · fees/IL 9.6×	2%OK ungraded fees ~12.0% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 8.9×
MAG7.ssi / USDC 0.3% Base · TVL — · every call & outcome · borrowed history	86%AVOID ungraded fees ~6.3% · IL ~1.9% · fees/IL 3.3×	14%OK ungraded fees ~2.1% · IL ~1.0% · fees/IL 2.2×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~0.9% · IL ~0.4% · fees/IL 2.1×

Arbitrum · 9 pool(s)

pool	±5% range	±15% range	±35% range
USDC / WETH 0.05% Arbitrum · TVL $36.8M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~14.5% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 3.5×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~4.9% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 1.8×	7%OK ungraded fees ~2.1% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 1.6×
USDC / WBTC 0.05% Arbitrum · TVL $8.2M · every call & outcome	90%AVOID ungraded fees ~15.9% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 7.1×	16%OK ungraded fees ~5.4% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 4.5×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~2.4% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 4.2×
WETH / USDT 0.05% Arbitrum · TVL $6.4M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~8.3% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 2.0×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~2.8% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 1.1×	7%OK ungraded fees ~1.2% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.9×
USDC / WETH 0.3% Arbitrum · TVL $5.7M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~10.6% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 2.6×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~3.6% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 1.3×	7%OK ungraded fees ~1.6% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 1.1×
WBTC / USDT 0.05% Arbitrum · TVL $4.1M · every call & outcome	90%AVOID ungraded fees ~9.7% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 4.4×	16%OK ungraded fees ~3.3% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 2.7×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~1.4% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 2.6×
WETH / USDC 0.05% Arbitrum · TVL $1.1M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~3.2% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 0.8×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.1% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.4×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.5% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.4×
CHIP / USDC 0.01% Arbitrum · TVL $1.0M · every call & outcome · own history (daily only — odds are a floor)	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~1.1% · IL ~8.0% · fees/IL 0.1×	73%AVOID ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~6.2% · fees/IL 0.1×	29%OK ungraded fees ~0.2% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.0×
PENDLE / USDT 0.3% Arbitrum · TVL $558k · every call & outcome · own history (daily only — odds are a floor)	99%AVOID ungraded fees ~36.5% · IL ~5.1% · fees/IL 7.1×	52%WATCH ungraded fees ~12.4% · IL ~3.4% · fees/IL 3.7×	3%OK ungraded fees ~5.4% · IL ~1.7% · fees/IL 3.1×
ESP / USDC 0.01% Arbitrum · TVL $312k · every call & outcome · own history (daily only — odds are a floor)	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~2.8% · IL ~4.0% · fees/IL 0.7×	57%WATCH ungraded fees ~0.9% · IL ~2.5% · fees/IL 0.4×	4%OK ungraded fees ~0.4% · IL ~1.3% · fees/IL 0.3×

Optimism · 3 pool(s)

pool	±5% range	±15% range	±35% range
USDC / WETH 0.3% Optimism · TVL $5.9M · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~23.3% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 5.7×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~7.9% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 3.0×	7%OK ungraded fees ~3.5% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 2.5×
WETH / USDT 0.05% Optimism · TVL $444k · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~5.4% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 1.3×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~1.9% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 0.7×	7%OK ungraded fees ~0.8% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 0.6×
USDC / WETH 0.05% Optimism · TVL $298k · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~9.8% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 2.4×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~3.3% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 1.3×	7%OK ungraded fees ~1.5% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 1.1×

Polygon · 5 pool(s)

pool	±5% range	±15% range	±35% range
WPOL / USDT 0.05% Polygon · TVL $1.3M · every call & outcome · own history (daily only — odds are a floor)	>99%AVOID ungraded fees ~56.5% · IL ~4.8% · fees/IL 11.7×	42%WATCH ungraded fees ~19.2% · IL ~3.2% · fees/IL 6.0×	14%OK ungraded fees ~8.4% · IL ~1.8% · fees/IL 4.6×
USDC / WETH 0.05% Polygon · TVL $710k · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~21.3% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 5.2×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~7.2% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 2.7×	7%OK ungraded fees ~3.2% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 2.3×
WBTC / USDC 0.05% Polygon · TVL $653k · every call & outcome	90%AVOID ungraded fees ~21.9% · IL ~2.2% · fees/IL 9.8×	16%OK ungraded fees ~7.4% · IL ~1.2% · fees/IL 6.1×	<1%OK ungraded fees ~3.2% · IL ~0.6% · fees/IL 5.8×
USDC / WETH 0.05% Polygon · TVL $430k · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~13.5% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 3.3×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~4.6% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 1.7×	7%OK ungraded fees ~2.0% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 1.5×
WETH / USDT 0.05% Polygon · TVL $411k · every call & outcome	98%AVOID ungraded fees ~26.2% · IL ~4.1% · fees/IL 6.4×	45%WATCH ungraded fees ~8.9% · IL ~2.7% · fees/IL 3.3×	7%OK ungraded fees ~3.9% · IL ~1.4% · fees/IL 2.8×

Not covered · and why

65 pools — priced against another volatile token: Poolwatch records the leg's USD price, not the pool's own rate, so the outcome is not measurable from this data
AAVE / WETH 0.3%, ADGUARDHOME / ADS 0.01%, AERO / WETH 0.3%, ARB / WETH 0.05%, ARB / WETH 0.3%, BACKGROUNDMUSIC / ADS 0.01% …
13 pools — stable/stable pair — a band on a peg is not a forecast
AUSD / USDC 0.01%, DAI / USDC 0.01%, DAI / USDT 0.01%, EUROC / EURCV 0.01%, EUROC / USDC 0.05%, GHO / USDC 0.01% …
10 pools — two wrappings of the same asset — a band on a peg is not a forecast
PAXG / XAUt 0.01%, WBTC / cbBTC 0.01%, cbBTC / WBTC 0.01%, cirBTC / WBTC 0.01%, kBTC / WBTC 0.01%, tBTC / WBTC 0.01% …
2 pools — only 1 daily snapshots (< 60)
Vollar / USDT 1%, WPRL / USDT 1%
1 pools — only 8 daily snapshots (< 60)
cirBTC / USDC 0.01%
1 pools — only 40 daily snapshots (< 60)
MNT / USDe 0.3%
1 pools — only 15 daily snapshots (< 60)
UNI / USDC 0.3%
1 pools — only 30 daily snapshots (< 60)
wTAO / USDC 1%
1 pools — only 49 daily snapshots (< 60)
WETH / USDT 0.3%
1 pools — only 5 daily snapshots (< 60)
NEAR / USDC 0.3%
1 pools — only 12 daily snapshots (< 60)
USDC / WETH 0.01%
1 pools — only 18 daily snapshots (< 60)
ARB / USDC 0.05%
1 pools — only 53 daily snapshots (< 60)
PENDLE / USDC 0.3%
1 pools — only 36 daily snapshots (< 60)
USDC / LINK 0.3%
1 pools — only 2 daily snapshots (< 60)
AERO / USDC 0.05%
1 pools — only 29 daily snapshots (< 60)
USDC / WPOL 0.05%

Track record · graded against the recorded prices

No forecast has matured yet — the first outcomes land 14 days after the first freeze, and the first formal verdict 28 freeze days after that (it will very likely read UNTESTED).

What this is. A forward call per pool: the odds a new LP range breaks within 14 days, frozen and published before the window opens. Separate from Poolwatch v1's TOP-vs-CONTROL selection test (still running daily at /poolwatch/), which asks whether its score picks better pools.
How it is made. For pools whose asset GradedLP already tracks (ETH, BTC, LINK, UNI …): that asset's last 2 years of 14-day windows, with real daily highs and lows. For the rest: the pool's own daily prices — one reading per day, so moves inside a day are invisible and the odds shown are a floor. The thinnest pools borrow the shape of the tracked ones, rescaled to their own recent volatility. Every row says which applied.
Fees and IL. "fees" is what a range position would earn over 14 days at the pool's current fee pace, concentrated into that range; "IL" is the average loss from price moving. The × is fees ÷ IL — below 1× the loss has historically outweighed the fees. Displayed, not graded.
One model, many boards. Every pool-weather board runs the same model, and ETH, BTC and each chain's native coin appear on most of them, so results on different boards are not independent tests — read them together, not added up.
How it is graded. Every forecast is hash-committed on the public record before its window opens and judged under a sealed standard on calibration. Misses are published. Not financial advice.