Base v4 · Uniswap v4 pool weather on Base, next 14 days

frozen 2026-10-06 13:55 UTC · window 2026-10-06 → 2026-10-20 · pre-registered before the window opens · base-v4.0.0 · all boards

Check it yourself: today's pre-registration · the sealed grading rule · the pool list (incl. exclusions) · how to verify

Entering an LP position today? For a new range set around today's price, how likely is it to break within 14 days (you stop earning fees and hold the losing side)?

ETH priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±35% (6% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
cbBTC priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±15% (15% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
cbBTC priced in ETH: narrowest OK band is ±15% (15% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
tBTC priced in USDC: narrowest OK band is ±15% (15% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.

How to read these numbers: each is how often a range this wide was broken (price left it at least once) across the pool's last 2 years of 14-day windows. They change little from day to day and do not react to this week's conditions.

±5%: 0 OK · 0 WATCH · 6 AVOID | ±15%: 4 OK · 2 WATCH · 0 AVOID | ±35%: 6 OK · 0 WATCH · 0 AVOID · AVOID ≥ 60% · WATCH 30–60% · OK < 30%

ETH priced in USDC · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap-v4 0.05% fee uniswap-v4 0x96d4b53a… · every call & outcome · price 2,715.71 USDC	98%AVOID ungraded IL ~4.1%	45%WATCH ungraded IL ~2.7%	7%OK ungraded IL ~1.4%
Uniswap-v4 0.30% fee uniswap-v4 0xe0707975… · every call & outcome · price 2,709.74 USDC	97%AVOID ungraded IL ~4.0%	45%WATCH ungraded IL ~2.6%	6%OK ungraded IL ~1.4%

cbBTC priced in USDC · 2 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap-v4 0.05% fee uniswap-v4 0x12d76c5c… · every call & outcome · price 86,364.51 USDC	89%AVOID ungraded IL ~2.2%	15%OK ungraded IL ~1.2%	<1%OK ungraded IL ~0.6%
Uniswap-v4 0.15% fee uniswap-v4 0xf97db199… · every call & outcome · price 86,304.08 USDC	88%AVOID ungraded IL ~2.2%	15%OK ungraded IL ~1.2%	<1%OK ungraded IL ~0.6%

cbBTC priced in ETH · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap-v4 0.05% fee uniswap-v4 0x2fbe93bf… · every call & outcome · price 31.7828 WETH · ratio history (hourly closes)	73%AVOID ungraded IL ~2.0%	15%OK ungraded IL ~1.1%	<1%OK ungraded IL ~0.5%

tBTC priced in USDC · 1 pool(s)

pool	±5% band	±15% band	±35% band
Uniswap-v4 0.30% fee uniswap-v4 0xb24f7fcd… · every call & outcome · price 86,097.40 USDC	89%AVOID ungraded IL ~2.2%	15%OK ungraded IL ~1.2%	<1%OK ungraded IL ~0.6%

Track record · graded against each pool's own on-chain price

No forecast has matured yet — the first outcomes land 14 days after the first freeze. The first formal verdict comes after 28 freeze days + 14 days to mature, and will very likely read UNTESTED (too little data to judge either way). That is said here in advance, not hidden later.

What this is. For each pool and three range widths (±5%, ±15%, ±35% of today's price, widened to the pool's tick grid), the chance that price leaves the range at least once in the next 14 days. Not a direction call.
How it is made. The last 2 years of 14-day windows for the pool's asset (Coinbase candles). For pools priced in ETH the ratio of the two coins' prices is used, built from hourly closes, which slightly understates the most extreme intraday moves. A pool whose token has no matching price history builds its own from this board's samples and gets no number until it has 60 usable 14-day windows.
Fees and IL (shown, not graded). "fees" = what a $1 position in that range would have earned in the last 7 days × 2, measured on-chain. "IL" = average impermanent loss over the same 2 years of windows. The × number is fees ÷ IL: below 1× the IL has historically outweighed the fees.
One model, many boards. Every pool-weather board runs the same model, and ETH, BTC and each chain's native coin appear on most of them, so results on different boards are not independent tests — read them together, not added up.
How it is graded. Every forecast is hash-committed on the public record before its window opens and judged under a sealed standard on calibration: do 60% forecasts get left about 60% of the time? The pool's price is read on-chain every 10 minutes. Misses are published.
Not financial advice.