ORCA/USDC
Market risk only. These calls measure what ordinary price movement does to a position. They say nothing about smart-contract bugs, hacks, depegs, rug pulls or the protocol itself.
What the calls on this page measure:
- SOL v2: whether a normal 14-day move of the asset can exhaust the room left in the position's band (tier only; OUT OF RANGE = already earning nothing).
- Market Weather: the chance that a fresh range of this width around the price at the freeze is broken by the pool's own price within 14 days.
AVOID / WATCH / OK are each board's own tiers, set from the probability by thresholds fixed in that board's sealed standard before its first call. Every call links to the file it was frozen in, published before its window opened.
Opening a range here today?
- Market Weather: narrowest OK range is ±35% (28% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
Each chance is how often a range this wide broke across the last 2 years of 14-day windows; it changes little day to day.
Latest calls
| Board | Frozen | Range | Chance | Tier | Proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Weather | 2026-10-06 | — | 45% break | WATCH | frozen file |
| Market Weather | 2026-10-06 | ±5% | >99% break | AVOID | frozen file |
| Market Weather | 2026-10-06 | ±15% | 80% break | AVOID | frozen file |
| Market Weather | 2026-10-06 | ±35% | 28% break | OK | frozen file |
| SOL v2 | 2026-10-06 | — | — | AVOID | frozen file |
This pool's record
resolved range calls 4average forecast 54%actually broke 75%all matured calls 13
Small numbers for one pool mean little on their own; the same windows overlap day to day. The calibration page pools every board.
Every call, newest first
Consecutive days with the same call and the same kind of outcome are folded into one row; open it to see each day's file.
| Frozen | Board | Range | Chance | Tier | Outcome | Proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | SOL v2 | — | — | AVOID · BBM 0.21 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-20 | call |
| 2026-09-22 → 10-06 ×15 | Market Weather | ±35% | 28% break | OK | pending · resolve ~2026-10-06 → 10-20 | |
| 2026-09-25 → 10-06 ×12 | Market Weather | ±15% | 80% break | AVOID | pending · resolve ~2026-10-09 → 10-20 | |
| 2026-09-22 → 10-06 ×15 | Market Weather | ±5% | >99% break | AVOID | pending · resolve ~2026-10-06 → 10-20 | |
| 2026-10-06 | Market Weather | — | 45% break | WATCH | pending · resolves ~2026-10-20 | call |
| 2026-10-05 | SOL v2 | — | — | AVOID · BBM 0.70 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-19 | call |
| 2026-10-05 | Market Weather | — | 13% break | OK | pending · resolves ~2026-10-19 | call |
| 2026-10-04 | SOL v2 | — | — | AVOID · BBM 0.87 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-18 | call |
| 2026-10-03 → 10-04 ×2 | Market Weather | — | 11% break | OK | pending · resolve ~2026-10-17 → 10-18 | |
| 2026-10-03 | SOL v2 | — | — | AVOID · BBM 0.93 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-17 | call |
| 2026-10-02 | SOL v2 | — | — | AVOID · BBM 0.96 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-16 | call |
| 2026-10-02 | Market Weather | — | 10% break | OK | pending · resolves ~2026-10-16 | call |
| 2026-10-01 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.11 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-15 | call |
| 2026-10-01 | Market Weather | — | 8% break | OK | pending · resolves ~2026-10-15 | call |
| 2026-09-30 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.17 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-14 | call |
| 2026-09-30 | Market Weather | — | 7% break | OK | pending · resolves ~2026-10-14 | call |
| 2026-09-29 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.12 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-13 | call |
| 2026-09-28 → 09-29 ×2 | Market Weather | — | 8% break | OK | pending · resolve ~2026-10-12 → 10-13 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.06 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-12 | call |
| 2026-09-27 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.03 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-11 | call |
| 2026-09-27 | Market Weather | — | 9% break | OK | pending · resolves ~2026-10-11 | call |
| 2026-09-26 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.09 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-10 | call |
| 2026-09-25 → 09-26 ×2 | Market Weather | — | 8% break | OK | pending · resolve ~2026-10-09 → 10-10 | |
| 2026-09-25 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.11 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-09 | call |
| 2026-09-24 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.20 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-08 | call |
| 2026-09-22 → 09-24 ×3 | Market Weather | ±15% | 81% break | AVOID | pending · resolve ~2026-10-06 → 10-08 | |
| 2026-09-23 → 09-24 ×2 | Market Weather | — | 7% break | OK | pending · resolve ~2026-10-07 → 10-08 | |
| 2026-09-23 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.20 | pending · resolves ~2026-10-07 | call |
| 2026-09-22 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.34 | band broke | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-22 | Market Weather | — | 6% break | OK | pending · resolves ~2026-10-06 | call |
| 2026-09-21 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.32 | band held | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-21 | Market Weather | ±35% | 28% break | OK | BROKE | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-21 | Market Weather | ±15% | 81% break | AVOID | BROKE | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-21 | Market Weather | ±5% | >99% break | AVOID | BROKE | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-21 | Market Weather | — | 6% break | OK | HELD | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-20 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.50 | band held | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-19 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.42 | band held | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-18 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.41 | band held | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-17 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.62 | band held | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-16 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.60 | band held | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-15 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.65 | band held | call · outcome |
| 2026-09-14 | SOL v2 | — | — | WATCH · BBM 1.57 | band held | call · outcome |