About GradedLP

GradedLP publishes forward calls on liquidity-pool risk — the chance a range breaks, whether providing liquidity loses to holding — freezes every call before its outcome exists, and grades it in public afterwards, misses included.

Who runs it

GradedLP is operated by Nathen Wright, who makes every decision about what is published and how it is graded. It is analytics, not financial advice (Terms).

Contact

[email protected] — questions, corrections, data requests, press.

Found an error?

Email the page or file and what looks wrong — for a forecast or outcome, the path in the public repository (for example prereg/bsc-v2/outcomes/…) and the row's record_id is enough. If it is confirmed, the correction is published as a new, dated disclosure in the public repository and noted where it applies. Nothing already published is edited or removed: the original stays, next to the correction.

What you can check without trusting us

Every forecast is fingerprinted and pushed to github.com/GradedLP/publiciq before its window opens; every change to that repository is anchored on the XRP Ledger; outcomes are published with the on-chain evidence behind them; scripts in the repository recompute every fingerprint and can read a pool's price on chain at the reported block. The model code is private, but a fingerprint of the exact code that makes and grades each board's forecasts is published, and a daily check flags any change to it. Start at the verification page. Whether every pipeline is running on time is shown, hourly, on the status page. Every pool's calls and outcomes are on its own page under /pools/, and how well the stated chances match what happened is on the calibration page; both are built only from the public files.

Where the numbers come from

Pool prices, liquidity and fees: read directly from each chain (public RPC nodes; Sui over GraphQL; XRPL ledger history). Coin price history: Coinbase daily and hourly candles (Kraken for the SOL v2 prior). Options-market view: Deribit. Pool discovery: DexScreener and GeckoTerminal, always re-checked on chain before a pool is admitted. Method details: methodology.