Frequently asked questions
What is GradedLP?
A free website that gives the odds that a liquidity-pool position loses money to ordinary price movement over the next 14 days, for about 200 pools on 12 chains. Every forecast is frozen and published before the outcome exists, then graded in public. Misses stay up.
What does it mean when a range “breaks”?
A concentrated-liquidity position earns fees only while price stays inside its range. The range breaks when price leaves it at least once. The position then stops earning and ends up holding more of the asset that fell.
What is the chance my Uniswap v3 range breaks in the next 14 days?
Find your pool in the search box or on your chain's board. For a fresh range of ±5%, ±15% or ±35% around today's price, each board gives the probability that the range breaks within 14 days, and the narrowest range still rated OK. Find your pool →
How is the chance calculated?
From history: how often a range that wide was broken across the last two years of 14-day windows for that pool's asset pair (or the pool's own shorter record where no matching price history exists). It changes little from day to day and does not react to this week's news. For coins traded on an options market, a separate options-based view is shown and tested alongside it. Methodology →
What do AVOID, WATCH and OK mean?
On the range boards: AVOID means a 60% or higher chance the range breaks within 14 days, WATCH 30–60%, OK under 30%. The thresholds were fixed in each board's sealed standard before its first forecast. SOL v2 uses its own tiers, including OUT OF RANGE for positions already earning nothing.
How wide should my range be?
Narrower ranges earn more fees while price stays inside, but break more often. Each board shows the narrowest range still rated OK for each pair. GradedLP states odds; it does not tell anyone what to do, and nothing on it is financial advice.
Does providing liquidity beat simply holding?
On the XRP Ledger board, that is the forecast itself: the chance LPing loses to holding over 14 days, graded exactly from on-chain reserves. For range pools, a fee-aware LP-versus-holding forecast (Fee Coverage) has been published daily since 2026-10-06 as a challenger. It can replace the boards' ungraded fees/IL figure only if it passes its own sealed test; the earliest that can happen is January 2027. XRPL v2 board →
How do I know the forecasts weren't changed after the fact?
Each day's forecasts are hashed (SHA-256) and committed to a public GitHub repository before their 14-day window opens, and the commits are anchored on the XRP Ledger. Anyone can recompute the hashes with the published verifier scripts. Verify the record →
How accurate is GradedLP?
The calibration page compares every resolved forecast with how often ranges actually broke. Formal verdicts come every 28 days under each board's sealed rule. The first are due from 2026-11-03 and, by those rules, can only read UNTESTED or INVALID; the first verdict that can fail a board is the second, and the first that can pass one is the third. Verdicts →
Which chains and pools are covered?
Ethereum, Arbitrum, Polygon, Base (two boards, one for Uniswap v4), BNB Chain, Avalanche, Optimism, HyperEVM, Monad, Sui, Solana and the XRP Ledger: about 200 pools, plus 14-day range odds for 34 top coins. Every pool →
What risks does GradedLP not cover?
Only market risk: what ordinary price movement does to a position. It says nothing about smart-contract bugs, hacks, depegs, rug pulls or the protocol itself.
Is it free? Who pays for it?
It is free, needs no account, and GradedLP itself sets no cookies. It has accepted no outside funding; any future funding follows a sealed policy that forbids payment for outcomes and requires disclosure. Funding and independence →
How often is it updated?
Every board freezes new forecasts once a day. Each forecast is graded when its 14-day window closes, and a weekly recap lists what broke, misses first. Weekly recap →