WAVAX/USDC pharaoh 0xf01449
Market risk only. These calls measure what ordinary price movement does to a position. They say nothing about smart-contract bugs, hacks, depegs, rug pulls or the protocol itself.
What the calls on this page measure:
- AVAX v2: the chance that a fresh range of this width around the price at the freeze is broken by the pool's own price within 14 days.
AVOID / WATCH / OK are each board's own tiers, set from the probability by thresholds fixed in that board's sealed standard before its first call. Every call links to the file it was frozen in, published before its window opened.
Opening a range here today?
- AVAX v2: narrowest OK range is ±35% (12% chance it breaks within 14 days). Anything tighter is WATCH or AVOID.
Each chance is how often a range this wide broke across the last 2 years of 14-day windows; it changes little day to day.
Latest calls
| Board | Frozen | Range | Chance | Tier | Proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAX v2 | 2026-10-06 | ±5% | >99% break | AVOID | frozen file |
| AVAX v2 | 2026-10-06 | ±15% | 63% break | AVOID | frozen file |
| AVAX v2 | 2026-10-06 | ±35% | 12% break | OK | frozen file |
This pool's record
No call for this pool has matured yet. Each one resolves 14 days after its freeze.
Every call, newest first
Consecutive days with the same call and the same kind of outcome are folded into one row; open it to see each day's file.
| Frozen | Board | Range | Chance | Tier | Outcome | Proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 → 10-06 ×8 | AVAX v2 | ±35% | 12% break | OK | pending · resolve ~2026-10-13 → 10-20 | |
| 2026-10-05 → 10-06 ×2 | AVAX v2 | ±15% | 63% break | AVOID | pending · resolve ~2026-10-19 → 10-20 | |
| 2026-09-29 → 10-06 ×8 | AVAX v2 | ±5% | >99% break | AVOID | pending · resolve ~2026-10-13 → 10-20 | |
| 2026-10-04 | AVAX v2 | ±15% | 62% break | AVOID | pending · resolves ~2026-10-18 | call |
| 2026-10-02 → 10-03 ×2 | AVAX v2 | ±15% | 63% break | AVOID | pending · resolve ~2026-10-16 → 10-17 | |
| 2026-10-01 | AVAX v2 | ±15% | 62% break | AVOID | pending · resolves ~2026-10-15 | call |
| 2026-09-30 | AVAX v2 | ±15% | 63% break | AVOID | pending · resolves ~2026-10-14 | call |
| 2026-09-29 | AVAX v2 | ±15% | 62% break | AVOID | pending · resolves ~2026-10-13 | call |
| 2026-09-25 → 09-27 ×3 | AVAX v2 | ±35% | 11% break | OK | pending · resolve ~2026-10-09 → 10-11 | |
| 2026-09-26 → 09-27 ×2 | AVAX v2 | ±15% | 63% break | AVOID | pending · resolve ~2026-10-10 → 10-11 | |
| 2026-09-25 → 09-27 ×3 | AVAX v2 | ±5% | >99% break | AVOID | pending · resolve ~2026-10-09 → 10-11 | |
| 2026-09-25 | AVAX v2 | ±15% | 62% break | AVOID | pending · resolves ~2026-10-09 | call |